September 19, 2021

California’s timeline to reach herd immunity ‘delayed past the fall’ due to delta variant, doctors say

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — The highly-contagious Delta variant is pushing again the state’s timeline to reach herd immunity, in accordance to doctors at UCSF.

“I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better,” mentioned UCSF Epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford.

Dr. Bob Wachter, the chair of UCSF’s Division of Drugs, tweeted out Tuesday the “#Delta variant has changed what it’ll take to reach herd immunity” – including we want extra vaccinations and mask-wearing.

Rutherford predicts the state will not reach herd immunity for at the very least a number of months as case charges and hospitalizations are climbing quickly throughout California.

“I’m guessing we have to be in the mid-80th percentile and that’s not of people eligible for the vaccine, that’s everybody, including children,” he mentioned.

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In accordance to ABC7’s vaccine tracker, 53 p.c of the state’s complete inhabitants is totally vaccinated.

San Francisco County is at 69 p.c totally vaccinated – one in every of the highest charges in the nation. But, COVID circumstances are climbing at a tempo well being officers have not seen since the onset of the metropolis’s final surge.

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“We’ve increased 8 fold in the past few weeks and we are projecting to be averaging 80 new cases per day,” mentioned San Francisco County Well being Officer Dr. Susan Philip. “We were down in the low teens just a few weeks ago.”
That sample is seen throughout the Bay Space.

ABC7’s information evaluation present in the past month, from June 20 to July 20 – there have been 1,671 new COVID hospitalizations and 402 new COVID ICU admissions throughout all 9 Bay Space counties.

Eighty-seven p.c of these new circumstances had been detected in Sonoma County. Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties reported the subsequent highest totals, averaging anyplace between 30 to 60 new month-to-month hospitalizations. Most figures are double or triple the totals reported final month.

“I think the worst of it will come sometime in the fall, September or October,” Rutherford mentioned. “I think we’re going to have to go down the rabbit hole of wearing masks for the next few months.”

The one components that would assist velocity up that prolonged timeline to reach herd immunity stems round how shortly the state can enhance the tempo of vaccinations of 13 to 17-year-olds. Not to point out, the added enhance that can come after the shot is permitted for 5 to 11-year-olds.

“Both of those groups could really help us get to where we need to be,” mentioned Rutherford. “But, people need to be really cautious right now.”

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